What to expect at Monza

What to expect at Monza

The last race weekend saw Sebastian Vettel utterly dominate in a wonderfully poised technical decision from the formidable design partnership of Adrian Newey and Christian Horner. Straight-line speed has never been a forte for the Red Bull but their enviable performance through high-speed corners has always kept them just ahead of their closest competitors. However, with a low-drag rear wing introduced at Spa, Red Bull seemingly sacrificed a small amount of their already immeasurable downforce to increase their straight-line speed. This admittedly small risk paid vast dividends as Vettel was able to coast past the far from competitive Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton on the very first lap of the race.

Interestingly, Spa is a unique circuit that requires high straight-line speed and also high downforce for the fast sweeping middle sector. Monza is a circuit that plays heavily into the hands of teams who can achieve and maintain an impressive top speed down the long straights. Red Bull will undoubtedly elect to rerun the skinny rear wing that propelled them to an impressive race win. Ferrari is a team that has a car capable of wonderful things under race conditions but their problems still lie in their qualifying performance. Like Red Bull, Ferrari has prioritised straight-line speed to make up for the underwhelming performance of the car thus far this season. By looking into their gear ratios and gearing their seventh gear a lot longer than most other teams, Ferrari put more pressure on their engine but is able to utilise the Drag Reduction System (DRS) alongside the Kinetic Energy Recovery System (KERS) down the straights without buzzing into their limiter like most other teams. Hence, the teams that concentrated development efforts on straight-line speed found themselves on the podium. Sebastian Vettel won the race and was followed by Fernando Alonso in second, evidence that these high-speed tactics were crucial to race performance in Belgium.

The aforementioned high-speed nature of Monza will once again benefit Red Bull and Ferrari; something bound to go down well with Ferrari’s die-hard Italian fans affectionately known as the Tifosi. However, where does this leave teams such as Mercedes and Lotus, teams that have arguably been competitive at the front of the grid this season? Well, Ross Brawn is in my opinion, after Adrian Newey, the most talented car designer in the sport. The high-speed performance of his team’s nearest competitors didn’t slip his attention and Mercedes are set to run a newly devised but essentially refined low-drag package. Brawn will hope that this refined aerodynamic package will at least elevate Mercedes to an equal footing with Red Bull and Ferrari in terms of race performance. Indeed, Lewis Hamilton seemed pessimistic ahead of this weekend thinking the team would be stuck with the same aerodynamic package. Mercedes have clearly worked hard in the two weeks since the conclusion of The Belgian Grand Prix undoubtedly due to the constant grumbling and ambition of Lewis Hamilton. Whether this new package delivers this weekend is certainly unpredictable but if I were to hypothesise I would back a spectacular return to form for Mercedes.

Aside from team development there is a driver who can break a number of records this weekend, Lewis Hamilton. He heads to Monza attempting to become the first driver since Damon Hill to win the race in consecutive years. If Hamilton does win on Sunday, he will also become the first man since Sir Sterling Moss to win the race in consecutive years with different teams. Hamilton dominated last year’s Italian Grand Prix for Mclaren exhibiting the fact that this is clearly a circuit Hamilton favours and feels comfortable driving. The records he can topple this weekend are also indicative of the number of years Hamilton has been in the sport even though he is only twenty-eight, around the same age as Paul Di Resta of Force India. This Saturday he will aim to collect his fifth consecutive pole position, having been untouchable in qualifying. The elephant in the room remains however. Sebastian Vettel looks to be supremely coexisting with his car and could very well be unbeatable this weekend. I predict Lewis Hamilton to secure pole position but Sebastian Vettel to seal race victory once again to all but demolish the hopes of any other Championship competitor this season and essentially seal his fourth consecutive Driver’s World Championship.